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Transformation of supply and demand structure international crude oil has returned to weakness

since September, NYMEX crude oil in the United States has surged and fell, and the main contract in November has fallen from the current 110 US dollars/barrel to 102 US dollars/barrel, making a sharp reversal of the previous reason. At the same time, it was emphasized that the purpose of the forum was to learn exchange, develop strengths and avoid weaknesses, inspire ideas, share results, and the risk premium caused by political factors. The easing of the Syrian crisis has become the fuse for the decline in oil prices. In addition, the fluctuation of the global macro environment, the passing of the seasonal peak consumption season of crude oil and the recovery of OPEC production will continue to suppress international crude oil

the global macro environment is still unstable

on September 18, the Federal Reserve maintained the existing QE scale, which greatly exceeded market expectations. On the same day, global commodities and precious metals rose one after another. However, the next day, the international oil price fell back from the short-term rebound peak. Investors understand the Fed's decision from another perspective, that is, the current degree of economic recovery in the United States has not reached the conditions to reduce or withdraw from QE, which has raised concerns about commodity demand. More than 75% of Nike footwear and clothing products use recyclable materials. Importantly, the domestic debt ceiling problem in the United States is about to make a comeback, and the differences between Democrats and Republicans are still serious. The market is worried that once Congress fails to pass the debt ceiling increase plan, S & P will downgrade the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United States in 2011. In addition, the German election ended and Merkel was re elected. However, the European debt problem before her is still very thorny. There is great uncertainty about whether the austerity policy it pursued can continue and whether its tough attitude towards Greece will trigger a new round of political game

the seasonal peak season of crude oil consumption has passed

according to the annual seasonal consumption law, gasoline consumption is the most vigorous in summer. Usually, at this stage, the domestic gasoline inventory in the United States decreases. Until October, gasoline consumption begins to slow down, resulting in inventory accumulation. In the same period, the winter heating peak in the United States has not yet begun, and the adjustment of refined oil categories by refineries often leads to a decline in operating rates, which in turn lowers crude oil demand. Recently, the trend of crude oil in the United States is significantly weaker than that of Brent crude oil, which is caused by the rapid decline of domestic consumption

OPEC production recovered

the previous rise in international crude oil prices was due to the phased recovery in demand on the one hand, and the reduction in crude oil production in OPEC countries led by Libya and Iraq on the other hand. However, after the Syrian problem eased and the peak demand season passed, supply rebounded to a certain extent. Recently, the largest oil field in Libya resumed production, which actually has a great impact on the experiment of the experimental machine. The average daily output of the oil field is about 500000 barrels, equivalent to one third of its total domestic output, which will promote Libya's crude oil production to return to normal level. In addition, after the new president of Iran took office, there were signs of easing the tension between Iran and Western countries, which contributed to the recovery of Iran's domestic crude oil production and exports. According to the data provided by OPEC, Iran's daily average crude oil production in August was 3.2 million barrels, an increase of 235000 barrels from July. Therefore, in the context of the recovery of OPEC crude oil production, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly again