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How about the follow-up trend of methanol in South China

what is the subsequent trend of methanol in South China

October 18, 2018

after the domestic methanol market briefly surged after the National Day holiday, since this week, due to factors such as the decline of the futures surge, the slowing down of the consumer side follow-up, and the pending digestion of the early contracts in the production areas, the amount of new orders in the main production areas has been average. At the same time, the trading atmosphere in Hong Kong is also obviously subject to the weakening of the market

what is the subsequent trend of methanol in South China

however, recently, the overall downward pressure rhythm of the methanol market in South China has slowed down, and its "rising water" range with East China has weakened (according to jinlianchuang data, from mid September to October 11, the rising water range of South China compared with East China is mostly concentrated in yuan/ton, and the price difference between the two places has narrowed to around 90 yuan/ton this week). Based on the fundamental expectations of cost and supply, the subsequent underground exploration space may be relatively limited for Chinese coatings. Specific analysis:

1 The international supply is tightening, and the external market cost is supported

recently, in addition to the continuous low negative operation of the methanol plant in New Zealand, the unexpected short-term shutdown of some projects in ZPC (1.65 million tons/year) and Teba in Iran has also reduced the international supply. If all materials are tested, it will become a certain speculation; In addition, under the continuous tightening of market supply in Europe, India and other markets, the focus of market trading has shown an obvious upward momentum, which has a certain boosting effect on other peripheral markets

it is reported that at present, most of the external negotiations are still non Iraqi goods, and some fixed prices are around 425 US dollars/ton CFR China, equivalent to 3600 yuan/ton; In addition, with the international supply significantly tight and the long-term negotiation approaching, the support given by the external end to the domestic market still exists

2. Although the subsequent arrival is centralized, the overall level is at the conventional level

according to the tracking data, after the National Day holiday, Dongguan and BP will supplement the cargo volume of about 25000 tons, of which Dongguan is about 11000 tons, some of which are made in the north; In addition, from the perspective of knowing the planned arrival volume of our company's products in the middle and late ten days, it is roughly estimated that the total volume is 6 At the 10000 ton level, most of the cargo volume is concentrated in Guangzhou

based on the monthly regular arrival, the average monthly replenishment of 100000 tons in Guangdong is also normal; However, the overall dispersion and concentration of subsequent sources of goods and transit operations need continuous attention

3. Raw material support, demand side follow-up is temporarily stable

the current raw material methanol and elongation is not relatively high, which brings strong cost side pressure to downstream industries. For example, a MTO in a port was forced to stop recently; For South China, where the traditional downstream digestion is the main part, the pressure on the cost side of raw materials also exists, so some downstream products are mostly shipped and operated at a high price. At present, large formaldehyde projects such as Linan, Jiantao and great wall are running smoothly, and the just need to follow-up fluctuations are not large for the time being

in addition, since September, we can choose the most suitable data for the "environmental oil" issue in Dongguan. When developing new data, data scientists should also stop testing the data. After a series of data to weigh the pause caused by the development of new data, the relevant departments have strictly investigated the potential safety hazards of local "alcohol based fuel", although some illegal storage and operation sites have been hit to a certain extent; However, based on the regulatory compliance, the government still has easing measures. It is noted that the overall impact of the downstream on methanol demand is temporarily limited, and continuous attention is needed in the future

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