The hottest supply and demand tends to be loose, a

2022-09-22
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Supply and demand tend to be loose, and the rubber price is expected to be next city.

the chart shows the trend of the main rubber contracts. (picture source: CSC futures)

the global economic recovery is not strong enough, and systemic risks are lingering.

although the global economy continues the process of recovery in the first half of this year, the general requirement is 0.2 ~ 0.4. The shadow of the euro zone debt crisis has always been lingering. Behind the bright economic data of China and the United States, the risk of the second bottom of the global economy is gradually increasing. In the first half of the year, China's economy returned to double-digit growth. In the first quarter, China's GDP growth rate was 11.9%, and in the second quarter, the market is generally expected to be more than 10.5%, while the GDP growth of the United States in the first quarter was 2.7%, which is still the second high level in the past two and a half years, although it was weaker than the 5.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. Accompanied by the resumption of high economic growth is the strong recovery of manufacturing data in China and the United States. Especially in the first quarter, China and the United States continued to maintain a sustained growth trend, whether it was purchasing managers' index, industrial production, capacity utilization and other indicators. However, after entering the second quarter, with China's continuously tightening credit scale and the gradual deepening of the regulation policy of the real estate market, the growth of the manufacturing industry began to appear insufficient. It is not difficult to see from the growth rate of broad money supply that the pace of domestic new loans slowed down significantly in 2010, and the trend of liquidity contraction has taken shape. Affected by this, the growth of industrial production added value of Enterprises above Designated Size in China has also slowed down significantly. The author believes that with the further clarity of the general policy of structural adjustment of China's economy, the moderately tight monetary policy will run through the performance standard mt/t942 (2) of the anchor cable for the whole mine. In 2005, the pulling effect of investment on China's manufacturing industry will be further weakened

the figure shows the relationship between industrial production and money supply. (picture source: wind, CSC futures))

in the first half of the year, the purchasing managers' index of the U.S. manufacturing industry continued to run above 50%, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing industry is still in the expansion period. However, it is worth noting that the U.S. real estate market, the initiator of the global financial crisis, has not improved significantly in the first half of this year, which actually reflects that the foundation of economic recovery is still very fragile when the world's largest injection volume reaches 300000 grams, In the United States, which is dominated by personal consumption, the downturn in the real estate market reflects that consumers are still lack of confidence in economic recovery. In addition, the continuous decline of ECRI leading indicators indicates that the US economy is not optimistic in the second half of the year

the chart shows the sales trend of new houses in the United States. (image source: CSC futures)

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