The hottest supply contraction expectation or supp

2022-09-22
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Supply contraction is expected to support the rebound in copper prices

since this year, LME copper futures prices have risen by 8%, far less than iron ore, nickel and other varieties in the same period. Industry insiders pointed out that looking forward to the second quarter, due to the increased expectation of supply contraction and the foreseeable demand outlook in the peak season, there is a high probability that copper prices will continue to strengthen

copper mine supply tightening

insiders pointed out that the probability of copper mine supply tightening this year is still high

zhengjingyang, an analyst at Nanhua futures, pointed out that last year, the mine interference rate fell unexpectedly, and the supply of copper mines rebounded sharply. However, since this year, mine supply disturbances have occurred frequently, including the earthquake in southern Peru, the production reduction of the world's second largest copper mine, grassberg, and the production reduction of the copper cobalt mine in the DRC planned by Glencore. The above disturbance factors have exacerbated the expectation of copper supply tightening. Moreover, the supply of copper mines in Congo and Zambia is still plagued by the rise of mineral tax, and the possibility of negative growth of copper mine supply this year increases. It is expected that the new copper mine production capacity will be limited in, and 500000 tons of copper mine will be added in 2019, and the growth rate will decline to about 2.4%. As the global monetary policy starts a new round of easing cycle, the expectation of superimposed supply contraction continues to strengthen, and the probability of copper price rising in the future is greater

according to the data, global mine disturbance events occurred frequently in the first quarter. On January 4, Konkola company, in which Vedanta has a majority stake, suspended its operations in nchanga copper mine. On January 8, imperial metal announced that it was shutting down production at the Polly hill mine in British Columbia. On February 8, Chile national Copper Corporation said that the heavy rainfall in Chile at the beginning of the month caused damage to infrastructure and suspension of some production, which is expected to damage its chuquica. The following is a microcomputer controlled torsion test mechanism to regulate the output of Mata and radomiro tomic copper mines. Freeport's copper concentrate export license in Indonesia expired on February 15, and it has not obtained a new export license, which makes the market worry about the supply side soar

demand in peak season can still be expected

in addition, demand for copper in peak season will remain relatively strong

fitch solutions' latest copper supply and demand outlook shows that in the next few years, driven by the growth of China's power and infrastructure industries and electric vehicle production, the growth rate of global copper consumption will continue to exceed the growth rate of supply. Copper prices rose, and China's refined copper production is expected to maintain a stable growth. Fitch solutions predicts that China is still the driving force behind the growth of global copper production

fanrui, an analyst of Guoyuan futures, said that agricultural construction will still drive copper demand. According to reports, according to the requirements of this year's government work report "completing a new round of agricultural upgrading and transformation", the state clearly stated that this year it will complete the task of power construction in "three regions and two prefectures" (excluding Nujiang Prefecture in Yunnan) outside Qinghai and Tibet and poverty-stricken areas in the central and western regions; South China should take cities and prefectures as units to achieve the national goal of a new round of agricultural transformation and upgrading in advance. According to the latest released data, the cumulative value of power infrastructure investment completed decreased by 3.57% year-on-year to 24.3 billion yuan in January this year, and the cumulative value of power infrastructure investment completed decreased by 8.96% year-on-year to 24.4 billion yuan in the same period. However, this is not enough to support the view that agricultural construction will perform weakly this year and lead to poor demand for copper due to the lack of high-quality and sophisticated foreign talents. With the gradual advancement of agricultural construction projects, the Asia Pacific Utilization Technology Laboratory of NVIDIA functional materials business in Qingpu has been officially completed, and the demand for copper for electricity will still be reflected in the peak season. On the demand side, the blind expectation of copper demand brought about by the implementation of China's domestic infrastructure was revised in the first quarter, but there was a suspicion that the expectation was excessively revised to excessively pessimistic. In addition, although the air-conditioning inventory was high, the domestic sales on February 22, 2012 this year may stimulate the production of air-conditioning, which will not decline much compared with last year. Therefore, the performance of the air-conditioning industry also exceeded expectations. The over expected correction on the demand side and the domestic sales of over expected air conditioners are new stimulus points for the copper market. Based on this, the copper market in the second quarter is relatively optimistic, and it is expected that the copper price will rebound in the second quarter

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