The hottest short-term positive digestion PVC tren

2022-08-25
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It is difficult to be optimistic about the trend of PVC in the short term.

in the trading days before November 9, the domestic PVC futures market was in a downturn, and the futures price basically maintained a narrow range of volatility. On the one hand, it is the cost support from upstream raw materials, on the other hand, it is the downturn in the demand of downstream enterprises. Since then, the volume of domestic PVC futures prices has increased significantly, and only suitable accessories can measure accurate values, breaking through the pressure position of 6945 in the early stage, and then steadily rising. The main 1001 contract has reached an intraday high since September 2. Recently, there has been a high-level consolidation and downward trend in PVC futures prices. We believe that with the gradual digestion of short-term benefits, it is difficult for domestic PVC to continue its early strength in the late stage, and the futures prices will return to a weak and volatile situation

the dust settles on the increase of electricity price

from the process of this round of chemical products rise, it is not difficult to find that PTA has the strongest trend, followed by plastics, while PVC, as the chemical product with the weakest trend in the early stage, has the demand for supplementary rise. The rise of the overall environment obviously drives the hype of funds on PVC. The pendulum is connected to the host through 1 pendulum shaft; The standard sample unhooking device for pendulum impact testing machine includes: electromagnetic iron absorption and support seat for supporting electromagnetic iron absorption. The continued weakness of the US dollar and the domestic loose monetary policy determine that the market liquidity is still relatively sufficient, and the rise in asset prices came into being on the basis of the flood of liquidity. The recent copper price is a good example. Although copper inventories in London and Shanghai are rising, on the basis of the fund's early layout of the domestic Spring Festival market, the copper price broke through the shock range for several months and moved towards a higher point. In other words, recently, the domestic commodity market has obvious capital driving characteristics, and such driving effect may continue under the condition of sufficient liquidity, and continue to support commodity prices

as far as PVC is a single variety, the fuse of this round of volume increase is nothing more than speculation on topics such as the rise of domestic electricity prices, the transportation of calcium carbide caused by Blizzard weather in the north and the difficulty of PVC supply going south. In the early stage, the expectation of power consumption increase of domestic enterprises supports the rise of ex factory prices of PVC enterprises, especially for calcium carbide production enterprises, the impact of electricity price on their costs is significantly higher than that of ethylene production enterprises, and nearly 3/4 of domestic enterprises are mainly produced by calcium carbide method. Therefore, the electricity price has a great impact on the overall domestic PVC price. According to the data, the comprehensive power consumption of domestic calcium carbide PVC is about 8250kwh/t, that is to say, the PVC price increases by 82.5 yuan for every penny of increase in electricity price. According to the calculation of the average increase of 0.028 yuan per kilowatt hour in the national non civil electricity price, the State Post Office has drafted a green development plan for express delivery, and the cost will increase by 231 yuan/ton

however, this increase in cost is due to the calcium carbide method enterprises that purchase electricity externally, as well as the production enterprises that we 1 see its integration of coal and electricity. Due to its own generator sets, there is no problem of cost increase. In the northwest region, the advantages of large-scale PVC production enterprises in power and calcium carbide make their production costs always controlled at a low position. The impact of this price increase on them is obviously small, and they account for a large proportion in the domestic PVC market. In addition, the spot price of domestic PVC, especially the spot price of calcium carbide PVC, has risen to a certain extent, which shows the expectation of rising electricity prices, which also shows that the beneficial impact is gradually weakening

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