The hottest short-term Shanghai Jiaotong will be w

2022-08-21
  • Detail

In the short term, Shanghai Jiaotong will take a weak downward short position of 25500 or participate in light positions

after entering September, the upward momentum of Shanghai Jiaotong has gradually slowed down, and the willingness of the main bulls to continue to pull up has decreased. Last Thursday, a bad news caused Shanghai Jiaotong to fall by nearly 4%. On the one hand, it shows the psychology of bulls that "high altitude does not win Cold". On the other hand, due to the accumulation of a large number of profit positions in the early stage, the sharp decline triggered a large number of position closing orders, Form a chain reaction. Judging from the current situation, the international macro-economic situation is not optimistic. In the case of heavy decline in popularity, Shanghai Jiaotong needs to find a new balance in the adjustment

economic growth in Europe, the United States and Japan slowed down

the European economic recovery was weaker than expected. Although the European Central Bank continued to maintain the leading interest rate of 1% in the euro zone to stimulate the economy, the European Central Bank said in its monthly report on the 9th that the economic growth rate in Europe would be weaker than previously expected, and euro zone member states should be prepared to take further measures to reduce huge deficits in order to achieve the previous deficit reduction target. In addition, the actual results of the European bank stress test were questioned, which continued to put pressure on the euro. According to the data recently released by the Greek National Bureau of statistics, the month on month decline in Greek GDP in the second quarter was revised down to 1.8% from the previous 1.5%, once again casting a shadow on the European economic outlook

in contrast, the US government has a much clearer attitude towards the economic slowdown. In the beige book released on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve insisted on the concept of continuous economic growth, marking a new step for the Institute's flotation desulfurization technology of high sulfur bauxite, but admitted that the U.S. economy showed a widespread slowdown, and some regional economies showed signs of deterioration. In order to prevent the economy from bottoming out again, the United States plans to launch a new round of stimulus plans with a total amount of 350billion US dollars, including a US $200billion corporate tax reduction proposal and a US $50billion infrastructure construction plan. This series of measures will inject new vitality into the US economy

the Japanese government is also an advocate of the economic stimulus plan. The Bank of Japan recently decided to continue the current monetary easing policy and maintain the unsecured inter-bank overnight lending rate at 0.1% when the bank was polishing. The Japanese government announced a detailed economic stimulus plan of 915billion yen on the 10th to boost consumption and create jobs, which has gradually eased Japan's domestic worries about deflation

although the three major economies in Europe, the United States and Japan have launched a series of stimulus policies to boost the economy, it highlights the weakness of their economies from the side. It still takes some time for the economies of all countries to return to a strong state, and during this period of adjustment, bulk commodities will face certain pressure

as the domestic economy stabilizes, the inflationary pressure should not be underestimated

domestically, economic growth begins to stabilize and domestic demand remains strong. In terms of industrial production, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 13.9% year-on-year in August, while the ex factory price of industrial products (PPI) increased by 4.3% year-on-year and decreased by 0.5% month on month, and the operation was in good condition. The recently released purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry was 51.7%, ending the previous continuous decline. In terms of import and export, China Customs announced data last Friday that exports increased by 34.4% year-on-year in August, and imports increased by 35.2% year-on-year. The slight decline in exports basically met expectations, while the continued rise in imports showed a strong trend in domestic demand

but the pressure of inflation should not be underestimated. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on September 11, CPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month in August, and has stood at the warning line of 3% for two consecutive months. It poses great pressure on the economy. Abundant liquidity makes it difficult for CPI to fall quickly in the short term. According to the latest data of the central bank, at the end of August, the balance of broad money (M2) was 68.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.2% year-on-year and 1.6% month on month; The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 3.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year. The net cash invested in the month was 38billion yuan, an increase of 21.3 billion yuan year-on-year

the stabilization of the domestic economy and moderate inflation are conducive to the long-term rise of commodities, but the long-term high inflation will in turn endanger the healthy operation of the economy, and the control of inflation will be a major part of the later government regulation, which is in the early stage of construction and development. Therefore, the support of high inflation for commodity prices will be difficult to sustain, and Shanghai Jiaotong will usher in a benign return of prices due to the excessive increase in the early stage

both supply and demand are slowing down, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange has little change.

the supply of natural rubber is slowing down. The Indonesian Rubber Association said last Thursday that due to the prolonged rainy season, the country's rubber production is expected to fall to 2.4-2.5 million tons this year, compared with 2.6 million tons previously estimated. The Thai Rubber Association, the largest producer of natural rubber, said last Tuesday that a higher export tax would be imposed from October 1, which would greatly limit the external supply of natural rubber from Thailand

and the demand, especially from China, will gradually slow down. According to the China Rubber Industry Association, the growth rate of China's rubber demand in 2010 will slow to 7.3%, compared with 8.9% last year, of which the demand for natural rubber is expected to grow by 5%. In addition, from the downstream market, although the automobile production and sales showed signs of recovery in August, of which the automobile production was 1.2775 million, a month on month decrease of 0.64% and a year-on-year increase of 11.99%; Sales of 1322300 vehicles increased by 6.29% month on month. However, due to the fact that the country will limit the excess capacity of vehicles, the automotive industry is still uncertain, and the price of natural rubber will be under pressure

in addition, the natural rubber inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25520 tons last week, a slight decrease of 600 tons compared with the previous week. Due to the limited downstream procurement, the inventory changes little

spot prices remain high

affected by the supply shortage in some major producing countries of natural rubber, the international spot price of natural rubber continued to rise sharply last week. The sharp rise of RSS3 spot price in Asia by 90 can save all experimental data and curves from US dollars/ton to US $3560/ton, while the domestic spot price also climbed slightly. The spot price of RSS3 in Qingdao Free Trade Zone rose to US $3480/ton, up US $20 from the previous week. No.1 standard glue rose to the range of yuan/ton. Due to the sharp decline of futures, the spot market fell into wait-and-see, but did not panic with the fall. Traders adjusted the glue price rationally and remained optimistic about the future glue price

the technical weakness is obvious

from the perspective of the shape of the Japanese K-line, the 1101 contract of the main force of Shanghai Jiaotong fell in panic last Thursday, breaking the 5-day, 10-day and 20 day average, and encountered no resistance at the 26000 level. The weekly K line has formed a huge physical negative line, and the short-term rise is likely to end here

in addition, from the perspective of trading volume, the trading volume of Shanghai Jiaotong 1101 decreased significantly, showing a downward trend. While MACD, RSI and other indicators have formed a high "dead cross", and the technical weakness is obvious. In addition, from the perspective of positions, the main 1101 contract reduced its positions by more than 84000 hands on Thursday and Friday, and the popularity of Shanghai Jiao suffered a big setback

to sum up, the slowdown in the economies of Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries and the reduction in future demand pose great pressure on Shanghai Jiao. However, due to the stabilization of domestic economic growth, relatively abundant liquidity, and the tight supply of natural rubber, it forms a certain support for Shanghai Jiao. In addition, Shanghai Jiao is technically weak, so the probability of a short-term decline of Shanghai Jiao is large, but the space is afraid to be limited. Shanghai Jiao needs to find a new balance point in the downward adjustment. Operation: short positions above 25500 yuan/ton can participate in light positions, and long positions can leave the market for a while to strictly control risks

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI