The hottest short-term PTA still has upward moment

2022-08-16
  • Detail

In the short term, PTA still has the momentum to rise, and the price may weaken after the fourth quarter

from the perspective of PTA supply and demand, both positive and negative factors coexist. The positive factors are mainly reflected in: in terms of demand, the overall supply environment in the future market will improve, and the tight supply situation may occur. At the same time, the time for exhibitors to enter and withdraw the exhibition hall will also extend the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" demand peak season, and the stock up and replenishment market may appear. In terms of supply, a large number of PTA units have been shut down for maintenance in a short time, which has given PTA prices some support. Negative factors are mainly reflected in: oil prices may show a weak pattern in the fourth quarter, while domestic energy conservation, emission reduction and power rationing measures restrain the downstream demand of PTA. On the whole, we believe that short-term PTA still has further momentum driven by positive factors, but after entering the fourth quarter, the price will gradually weaken, and on the whole, it may show a pattern of rising first and then declining

the peak season is not prosperous, and the oil price may show a weak pattern in the fourth quarter.

from the characteristics of crude oil inventory changes, the late second quarter is an important inflection point for the inventory level to rise and fall in the year. This period is often the time when the oil inventory level is at its highest. With the arrival of the oil consumption peak in the summer quarter of the third quarter, the oil inventory is expected to continue to fall in the next few months. However, at present, the inventory level of crude oil and gasoline is still at a historical high, and the traditional peak of oil consumption in summer has failed to bring down the inventory

the third quarter is the traditional peak sales season of refined oil. After entering the fourth quarter, the crude oil processing volume may have a phased inflection point, especially when the storage of refined oil is at a high level, the recovery of refinery operating rate is questionable. In the peak season, oil prices will face certain pressure in the fourth quarter

in the first half of 2010, the net speculative excess has been at a historical high, but the crude oil price is difficult to rise further. It is expected that the net speculative excess will fall in the second half of the year, which will make the oil price lose support. The implementation of the new financial regulation act in the United States will restrict speculation in the futures market, and speculative positions may decline, resulting in a lack of significant action power in oil prices

we believe that the general trend of the US dollar is that it is easy to oscillate and operate downward, but its replacement is a quite long process. The short-term decline of the US dollar after the domestic financial crises in the United States usually bottoms out, while the US dollar tends to rise due to its hedging function after the spread of the crisis, and usually remains strong throughout the year. Especially before the internal contradictions in the eurozone are basically resolved, the US dollar will remain quite strong. At the same time, the "Reindustrialization" of the United States needs the support of international capital, which also needs to maintain the relative strength of the US dollar. The relative strength of the US dollar has suppressed the prices of crude oil and other commodities

PX pressure may gradually appear

crude oil, as the leader of bulk commodities, may show a weak pattern in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to have a major trend market. As the current gasoline inventory is at a historical high, we expect that with the end of the peak of gasoline consumption, the operating rate of refineries in the future is expected to decline, and the PX supply may ease. Recently, PX decoration is in the period of centralized maintenance, the spot price and contract price of PX have risen to above $950, and the PX production profit converted by naphtha remains. Therefore, PX devices are expected to resume operation in succession, and the aftermarket pressure of PX will gradually appear, so the cost support effect of PTA will gradually weaken

short term supply and demand are tight, and PTA prices are supported.

from the perspective of PTA supply, the current beneficial factors are mainly focused on improving the automation and data accuracy of device maintenance; It can also save the experimental parameters and the commissioning of the new polyester device. In terms of PTA plant maintenance, driven by high profits this year, PTA operating load has always been maintained at more than 90%. After entering August, production lines including Yangzi Petrochemical and Xianglu Petrochemical have been overhauled successively, and PTA operating load has fallen to around 80%. Looking ahead, some units, including Formosa Plastics Ningbo, South Korea and India, have entered the maintenance period, during which the operating load will remain relatively low, and the beneficial effect of supply will gradually appear

from the pull effect of the new polyester device on PTA demand, the growth of polyester capacity is significantly faster than PTA. We expect that the first half of this year will be affected by the maintenance of PTA device, and the second half will be affected by the increase of new polyester capacity greater than PTA capacity. In this way, the market supply environment will change, and the balance and even tight situation will reappear, thus supporting PTA prices

let's talk about the quarterly protection and maintenance of universal material testing machine. How much do you know? What should relevant staff pay attention to? In terms of demand, before the traditional double festival, downstream goods are mostly prepared in the middle and late September. At present, it is the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" demand peak season of PTA. Traders have strong bullish expectations for the future market, and the stock up market in advance may appear in the short term

energy conservation and emission reduction will affect demand, and the negative effects will continue to show

the impact of limited electricity and energy conservation and emission reduction, and the downstream demand for upstream products of PTA will decline. At present, the shutdown of chemical fiber production capacity is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang region. The power restriction policy suppresses the polyester factory, which is forced to stop and reduce the burden, and its purchase demand for polyester raw materials is weakened. With the continuous strengthening of the implementation of the power restriction policy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the downstream operating load will be passively reduced, which may temporarily inhibit the consumption of PTA. Judging from the current situation, the scale and intensity of power rationing measures continue to expand. From the wait-and-see attitude of most polyester enterprises in July to the mandatory implementation of power rationing measures across Zhejiang in August, the overall production reduction of downstream enterprises has generally increased. In addition, recently, most regions of Jiangsu have also introduced energy-saving and emission reduction power rationing measures. We expect that in the future, the scale of power rationing measures in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces will gradually expand, and the duration is expected to lengthen, and the negative impact on PTA demand will continue to appear

to sum up, the short-term PTA price still has the momentum to further rise, but after entering the fourth quarter, the price will gradually weaken, and on the whole, it may show a pattern of rising first and then declining

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI