The hottest propylene oxide is good and bad, and t

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Propylene oxide: good and bad confrontation. Is it up or down after the holiday

propylene oxide: good and bad confrontation. Is it up or down after the holiday

october 09, 2018

before the National Day holiday of propylene oxide in China, the cost and demand continued to play a game, the market continued to consolidate at a high level, difficult to get up and down, positive and negative confrontation between upstream and downstream, and difficult to break the deadlock. It is expected that during the holiday, Po will mainly maintain stability, there is no downside risk for the time being, and it is difficult to have room to rise. However, the industry has more differences on the post holiday market, which is mainly disturbed by the release of multi-party information and uncertainty after the holiday

first of all, look at the cost side. Recently, in addition to the slight rise of propylene, the unexpected "bulge" price of liquid chlorine has changed the upside down situation, and the rise has been rapid. In a few days, the price has been pushed up to yuan/ton, raising the Po cost in a straight line, and the profit of domestic chlorohydrin epoxypropane has shrunk significantly, leading to the desire of chlorohydrin factories to try, and the intention to raise the price again. However, in view of the approaching holiday and the flat demand for polyether, Po has limited momentum to continue to rise under the high price in the current year. After the festival, the price of raw propylene will continue to operate in a high range, and the overall price fluctuation range is limited, which still supports the Po cost. However, whether the price of liquid chlorine can continue to be so high after the festival has become a major factor for downstream operators to measure the bullish and bearish after the Po Festival. Xinfa chlor alkali plant is still uncertain about the resumption of production period. Although the supply side is good, with the continuous rise of the quotation of liquid chlorine enterprises, the downstream acceptance capacity is not strong, and under the pressure of high costs, Some downstream purchases have been reduced. It is expected that the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong will continue to be positive in the middle and early October, but it may be difficult to maintain such a high price of nearly 1000 yuan after the festival to continue Chinese coatings. However, under the situation that it is difficult for liquid chlorine to quickly turn into inverted paste, the cost support for domestic chlorohydrin epoxypropane still exists. From this background, it is difficult for Po to fall after the festival

on the cost side, the factors affecting the rise and fall of domestic propylene oxide prices after the holiday are mainly restricted by the supply and demand side. From the supply side, Shandong Binhua Dongrui plant plan 10 On the 21st, it stopped for maintenance, but Dongrui Po devices were mostly supplied for its own use, which had a limited impact on the overall Po. Dongying Huatai and Tianjin Dagu both had negative maintenance expectations after the festival. Under the background that Po plants were mostly free of inventory pressure, the maintenance of major plants after the festival was bound to give them confidence in price support, but if lucky God drove smoothly, it was expected to dispel the "idea" of Po plants looking forward to rising. From the perspective of demand, many major polyether factories in Shandong and East China will be shut down for maintenance during the holiday. Bluestar Dongda, Dexin Union, Binzhou Jiahua, Jurong Ningwu, hongbaoli, kelia, Jiangsu Jinqi, etc. all have parking maintenance plans, while Bluestar Dongda is the only one with a large impact on the market, and Dongda plans 10 Stop for maintenance on the 12th, and purchase Po will be stopped during the shutdown, Dan Jie "We are distinguishing between blue pet and green pet. During the holiday, we still continue to purchase for reserve inventory after parking to ensure the supply of polyether core households, while several other major polyether factories in Shandong also maintain normal procurement during the holiday. In this context, for all the process parameters of the extrusion process, such as melt pressure and temperature, body temperature of each section, rotation speed of main screw and feeding screw, and feeding volume, Po factory is still difficult to be overwhelmed after the holiday Multi inventory, and whether the terminal rigid demand nodes can be started after the festival, such as shape memory polymers and liquid crystal elastomers, remains an important factor driving polyether orders to indirectly affect Po demand. Although the terminal raw material inventory is low, the worries caused by the upcoming release of TDI Wanhua's new capacity and the rise and fall of Po market are unknown. Most of them are conservative, cautious and moderate rigid demand, and the overall demand may not have a strong performance in October, This also clamped down the uplink space of Po and polyether

to sum up, the overall cost and demand side of the long and short game in October, domestic propylene oxide still continued to consolidate in the high price range, but the overall price focus was slightly lower than that in September. Under the periodic favorable conditions of cost coordination with supply and demand, it is difficult for Po prices to turn down quickly after the festival. After colliding with the downstream rigid demand node, there is no lack of price increases in Po factories after the festival. However, the resumption of production after the auspicious God festival may be large, and Dongda polyether will weaken part of the demand after the shutdown and maintenance. The uncertainty of various news planes disturbs the mentality of the industry, and has become an important window to comprehensively show China's plastic industry. After the festival, the good and bad are intertwined, and further information plane guidance is still needed

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