The hottest propylene market accelerated its decli

Propylene: the market has accelerated its decline, and the offer is approaching the low point of the year

propylene: the market has accelerated its decline, and the offer is approaching the low point of the year

November 28, 2018

last week, it is reported that the concentration of ships arriving at the port has increased, and the volume of goods arriving at the port from the outer disk has reached twice the normal level. The left sample can be made into a long strip sample with a width of 15mm or 25mm. The 50000 T/a propylene plant of Shengli Petrochemical and the 35000 T/a propylene plant of Haike old plant resumed production, and the pressure on the propylene supply side continued to rise. In addition, the futures and spot prices of international crude oil and polypropylene continued to fall sharply, which brought great negative impact on the traders' trading mentality and Chinese coatings. The strong wait-and-see mood of downstream factories, coupled with the approaching arrival of some external supply sources, led to a sharp decline in the overall buying strength. Propylene refinery shipments were blocked, bearish expectations increased, and shipments were made at a large margin. The positive selling mentality was more obvious, and the decline was larger than the industry's expectations. As of November 26, the market price of propylene in Shandong fell by 825 yuan/ton, or 9.91%, compared with last Wednesday

propylene upstream and downstream devices have fluctuated frequently recently. The 50000 T/a propylene plant of Fuyu chemical, the 80000 T/a propylene plant of Shenchi chemical and the 30000 T/a propylene plant of Wantong chemical may resume production in early December, and the propylene market supply will continue to increase. The load of some downstream powder plants decreased slightly, and the propylene supply was mainly long-term. In terms of butanol and octanol, butanol and octanol in the downstream of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Co., Ltd. decreased the negative, affecting the amount of propylene at about 150 tons. Shandong lanfan and Jiangsu huachangding octanol units are scheduled to resume production in early December. A propylene oxide plant in Sanyue, Shandong Province is scheduled to be overhauled for five days this week. In addition, the 80000 T/a acrylic acid plant in Kaitai industrial new area was started at the weekend to save costs

at present, it is expected that from the end of November to the beginning of December, the inbound volume of external goods is still relatively large. Affected by the negative macro news, downstream buying enthusiasm is still not high, and propylene supply is mainly long-term contract and rigid demand loose orders. There is no obvious good news guidance in the market for the time being. In the short term, the fatigue is difficult to change, and the mentality of upstream and downstream operators is cautious. It is suggested to pay close attention to the impact of the international crude oil and PP futures price trend on the mentality of operators in the near future. At present, if the downstream agreement does not stipulate the experimental conditions for the propylene inventory consumption stage, the refinery's offer is close to the low point of the year. If the macro news surface is significantly improved, the downstream factories will copy the bottom and replenish their positions again, so as to relieve the refinery's shipping pressure, or it will drive the propylene market price to stop falling and rebound temporarily. Therefore, zhuochuang predicts that there is still a certain downward space in the propylene market price in the short term, and we need to wait and see the changes in the news in the future