The hottest propylene glycol market is freezing

The propylene glycol market is getting colder

the propylene glycol market is getting colder

December 7, 2018

"since October, the propylene glycol market has experienced a cold wave, and the price has continued to fall. Taking the East China market as an example, the price ranges from 9500 to 9800 yuan (ton price, the same below) Once fell to 8400 Table 2 at the end of November: ~8600 yuan. Although the recent price has rebounded slightly by about 200 yuan, in the future, the cost has weakened and the demand is sluggish, so there is no hope of the market recovering. " Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trade Co., Ltd., and other market participants made the above judgment

supply side

continuous pressure

according to Zhang Xu, manager of Jilin Baoyuan Chemical Trade Co., Ltd., in October, due to the gradual increase of Yulin plant load, the supply side was loose, while the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, the purchase interest was flat, and the propylene glycol market fell, falling by 5.4% in the month. In November, the propylene glycol market still did not improve. In addition, the previous overhaul device was restarted, and the industrial operating rate rose to about 63%. The supply increased, and the price continued to fall

"wells propylene glycol plant is planned to restart in the near future, when the spot supply will still increase, further weakening the rising momentum of the market." Zhang Xu said

in addition, the influx of foreign products has also increased market pressure. According to customs data, China imported 5995 tons of propylene glycol in October, an increase of 33.5% over the same period last year, intensifying competition in the domestic market

Wang Ningning, an analyst at jinlianchuang, believes that it is difficult to find a positive supply side of the propylene glycol market. In addition, in the off-season demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to change, and the market may continue to be weak

cost side

expected weakness

from the perspective of raw material propylene oxide, the focus of recent negotiations has shifted slightly upward. However, after 3 days of continuous pursuit of terminal demand, the stamina is slightly insufficient, or a new round of downward exploration cycle may be started

Wang Ningning said that propylene, the upstream raw material of propylene oxide, is expected to fall below 8000 yuan due to the impact of crude oil and downstream polypropylene. Propylene prices fell, and the cost center of propylene oxide was lowered in a straight line. In the later stage, propylene plants that have been shut down in Shandong will be restarted one after another, and downstream plants will be overhauled in the northwest, and the source of outward shipments will increase. While the downstream buying was cautious in entering the market, and the transaction only maintained rigid demand

Wang Chunming believes that the terminal demand for propylene oxide has entered the off-season, and the sustainability of follow-up is insufficient. In addition, the supply of imported goods from East China will be offered and shipped next week, which will aggravate the supply pressure in the local market, and the price is expected to decline, which is difficult to support the cost of propylene glycol

demand side

weak lifting

unsaturated resin is the largest downstream of propylene glycol. Recently, the unsaturated resin market has been weak, and manufacturers just need to purchase raw materials, which is difficult to drive the propylene glycol market upward

"affected by the Sino US trade war in the early stage, the orders of unsaturated resin factories have been reduced compared with previous years. Coupled with the increase of environmental protection, the production encourages the use of products suitable for various uses, and the factory shutdown or production reduction has increased, and the demand for propylene glycol has been further reduced, which is expected to remain weak in the future." Wang Ningning analyzed

wangchunming believes that unsaturated resin is a relatively weak industry, and its own voice is relatively weak. The reduction of raw material prices not only did not bring benefits to enterprises, but also caused a greater decline in products and narrowed profit space. In addition, the cost of environmental protection and other auxiliary materials are also increasing, and the production pressure of enterprises is large. At present, the operating rate is only 47%, and it is difficult to purchase raw materials in large quantities

in addition, due to the impact of ethylene glycol, diethylene glycol and other products, the application of propylene glycol in medium and low-end unsaturated resins has been basically replaced, and only medium and high-end factories use it, which is also the reason why it is difficult for the propylene glycol market to rank first in the world for three consecutive years